The Science of an Apocolypse

Human beings have been predicting the end of the world for almost as long as we have had a world worth ending. Every civilization eventually develops somebody standing on a hill, street corner, television studio, internet channel, or suspiciously well-stocked basement explaining that everything will collapse shortly after lunch on Tuesday. So far, Tuesday has repeatedly disappointed them. Civilization has staggered through wars, plagues, famines, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, economic crashes, political upheavals, technological revolutions, and countless announcements that society has finally become too ridiculous to continue. Yet here we are, still paying utility bills and searching for the television remote.Unfortunately, the fact that humanity has survived every previous catastrophe does not mean catastrophe is impossible. The scientific record contains several events that would qualify as apocalyptic by almost any reasonable definition. Asteroids have radically altered life on Earth. Massive volcanic eruptions have changed global climates. Diseases have killed astonishing percentages of human populations. Solar storms have damaged technology, earthquakes have erased cities, and wars have demonstrated that human beings occasionally possess both extraordinary intelligence and a remarkable determination not to use it. The modern world adds entirely new vulnerabilities because billions of people depend upon electrical grids, satellites, computer networks, international shipping, industrial agriculture, refrigeration, medicine, telecommunications, banking systems, and supply chains so complicated that almost nobody understands the whole machine.