Inside The Crystal Ball

Drawing on author Maury Harris' long and successful career in the field of economic forecasting, Inside the Crystal Ball offers an insider's hands-on guide that can improve almost anyone's ability to make long-range business and investment decisions. Filled with illustrative examples and real-world situations, the book explains how and why forecasting practitioners succeed, and sometimes fail, to correctly predict the future. Using the information and strategies outlined in this vital resource can bolster your ability to effectively communicate advice about the economic future to clients, bosses, colleagues, and anyone else.For the investor, Inside the Crystal Ball is an insider's guide to demystifying the sometimes confusing and contradictory analysis of the future presented by pundits and professionals as support for investment decisions. Harris clearly illustrates how accurate forecasting is more about honing judgment of the underlying drivers than about proficiency in pure quantitative analysis mathematics and statistics. In other words, a successful forecasting career is for all of us, not just the geeks.The author reveals why some forecasters are more reliable than others and presents his successful approach to both the statistical and judgmental aspects of forecasting. Harris assesses the four competing schools of economic thought and sheds light on their strengths and weaknesses. The book also addresses long-standing forecasting challenges such as reliance on government information, shifting business sentiment and fickle consumers, as well as the newer challenges such as the New "Normal" and terrorism. In addition, Harris examines in detail the toughest challenge of all the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates.Everybody forecasts and listens to forecasters. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part of our lives. Let Maury Harris's Inside the Crystal Ball give you the confidence to originate, communicate, and evaluate advice about the future more effectively.