Climate Change and Agricultural Water Security in Punjab, Pakistan: An AquaCrop-Based Assessment

This book presents a comprehensive assessment of how climate change is expected to influence agricultural water requirements, crop productivity, and food security in Punjab, Pakistan. Using the FAO AquaCrop model integrated with advanced CMIP6 climate projections, the study evaluates the future performance of wheat and sugarcane in the districts of Sheikhupura and Gujranwala under multiple climate scenarios. The findings reveal that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will increase irrigation demand and reduce wheat productivity, while sugarcane shows limited resilience under moderate climate conditions but remains vulnerable under severe warming scenarios. By combining climate science, crop modeling, and water resource management, this work provides valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners seeking sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural strategies for the future.